A probabilistic model for fatality estimation of ship fire accidents

Abstract

Fatality estimation is beneficial for improving the safety of fireproofing in ship design and ensuring a quick response to fire accidents. This paper proposes a probabilistic method for fatality estimation of fire accidents caused by critical temperature and critical smoke in terms of comparing the available safe egress time and the required safe egress time. The kernel of this proposed method is first to derive the available safe egress time estimation equation by using fire dynamics simulator field model to simulate the fire development process and, to determine the required safe egress time equation given by the guideline of International Maritime Organization, which consider crowd behaviours, including waiting time at corridors, stairs and doors. The proposed method is applied to a real fire accident and the fatality rate is approximate to real scenarios. Consequently, this paper proposes a practical and holistic method for fatality estimation of ship fire accidents.