Effect of London cycle hire scheme on bicycle safety

Abstract

This study evaluates the effect of London Cycle Hire scheme (LCH) on bicycle crashes, based on the data from 333 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in the period 2011–2012. The Propensity Score Matching method (PSM) is applied to evaluate the effects of policy interventions (‘treatment’) on bicycle safety, with which the effects of confounding factors on the treatment effects are accounted, using the systematically established untreated groups. Covariates including land use, traffic and population characteristics are considered when selecting the untreated group for each treated unit. Results of PSM indicated that numbers of overall and slight injury bicycle crashes increased by 37.7% and 31.8% when LCH was introduced. Additionally, the interaction by another transport management policy – London Congestion Charging scheme (LCC) – on the effects of LCH on bicycle crash was estimated. Numbers of overall and slight injury bicycle crash further increased by 59.1% and 57.8% because of the implementation of LCC. For the killed or seriously injured (KSI) bicycle crashes, increases were observed in both cases (i.e. 81% for LCH and 66% for LCC), despite that they are not statistically significant. Results are indicative to the design and planning of bicycle infrastructure that could enhance the overall bicycle safety in London.