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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/90938
Title: | Analysis and forecasts of the demand for imported wine in China | Authors: | Liu, A Song, H |
Issue Date: | Aug-2021 | Source: | Cornell hospitality quarterly, 1 Aug. 2021, v. 62, no. 3, p. 371-385 | Abstract: | The aim of this study is to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s imported wine demand and to forecast wine imports from 2019 to 2023 using econometric methods. Auto-regressive distributed lag models are developed based on neoclassical economic demand theory to investigate the long-term determinants of China’s demand for imported bottled, bulk, and sparkling wine from the top five countries of origin. The empirical results demonstrate that income is the most important determinant of China’s imported wine demand, and that price only plays a significant role in a few markets. Substitute and complement effects are identified between wines from different countries of origin and between imported wines and other liquids. China’s imported wine demand is expected to maintain its rapid growth over the forecast period. Bottled wine will continue to dominate China’s imported wine market. France will have the largest market share in the bottled wine market, Spain will be the largest provider of bulk wine, and Italy will hold the same position for sparkling wine. This is the first study to use a single equation with the general to specific method rather than a system of equations to estimate and forecast China’s demand for imported bottled, bulk, and sparkling wines from different countries of origin. The more specific model setting for each country of origin improves forecasting accuracy. | Keywords: | ADLM model China Elasticity Forecasts Imported wine demand |
Publisher: | SAGE Publications | Journal: | Cornell hospitality quarterly | ISSN: | 1938-9655 | EISSN: | 1938-9663 | DOI: | 10.1177/1938965520981070 | Rights: | © The Author(s) 2021 This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). The following publication Liu, A., & Song, H. (2021). Analysis and Forecasts of the Demand for Imported Wine in China. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 1938965520981070 is available at https://doi.org/10.1177/1938965520981070 |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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