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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/9005
Title: | A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice | Authors: | Peng, B Song, H Crouch, GI |
Issue Date: | Dec-2014 | Source: | Tourism management, Dec. 2014, v. 45, p. 181-193 | Abstract: | Numerous studies on tourism forecasting have now been published over the past five decades. However, no consensus has been reached in terms of which types of forecasting models tend to be more accurate and in which circumstances. This study uses meta-analysis to examine the relationships between the accuracy of different forecasting models, and the data characteristics and study features. By reviewing 65 studies published during the period 1980-2011, the meta-regression analysis shows that the origins of tourists, destination, time period, modeling method, data frequency, number of variables and their measures and sample size all significantly influence the accuracy of forecasting models. This study is the first attempt to pair forecasting models with the data characteristics and the tourism forecasting context. The results provide suggestions for the choice of appropriate forecasting methods in different forecasting settings. | Keywords: | Forecasting accuracy International tourism demand Meta-analysis |
Publisher: | Pergamon Press | Journal: | Tourism management | ISSN: | 0261-5177 | EISSN: | 1879-3193 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.04.005 | Rights: | © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. © 2014. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. The following publication Self-funded is available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.04.005. |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Meta_Analysis_Accuracy_Peng_et_al.pdf | Pre-Published version | 1.73 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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