Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/9005
Title: A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice
Authors: Peng, B
Song, H 
Crouch, GI
Keywords: Forecasting accuracy
International tourism demand
Meta-analysis
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Tourism management, 2014, v. 45, p. 181-193 How to cite?
Journal: Tourism management 
Abstract: Numerous studies on tourism forecasting have now been published over the past five decades. However, no consensus has been reached in terms of which types of forecasting models tend to be more accurate and in which circumstances. This study uses meta-analysis to examine the relationships between the accuracy of different forecasting models, and the data characteristics and study features. By reviewing 65 studies published during the period 1980-2011, the meta-regression analysis shows that the origins of tourists, destination, time period, modeling method, data frequency, number of variables and their measures and sample size all significantly influence the accuracy of forecasting models. This study is the first attempt to pair forecasting models with the data characteristics and the tourism forecasting context. The results provide suggestions for the choice of appropriate forecasting methods in different forecasting settings.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/9005
ISSN: 0261-5177
EISSN: 1879-3193
DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.04.005
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