Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/87644
DC Field | Value | Language |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor | Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics | en_US |
dc.creator | Hossain, MP | en_US |
dc.creator | Junus, A | en_US |
dc.creator | Zhu, X | en_US |
dc.creator | Jia, P | en_US |
dc.creator | Wen, TH | en_US |
dc.creator | Pfeiffer, D | en_US |
dc.creator | Yuan, HY | en_US |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-07-16T04:00:13Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2020-07-16T04:00:13Z | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1755-4365 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10397/87644 | - |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
dc.rights | © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/). | en_US |
dc.rights | The following publication Hossain, M. P., Junus, A., Zhu, X., Jia, P., Wen, T. H., Pfeiffer, D., & Yuan, H. Y. (2020). The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19. Epidemics, 100397 is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100397 | en_US |
dc.title | The effects of border control and quarantine measures on the spread of COVID-19 | en_US |
dc.type | Journal/Magazine Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.volume | 32 | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100397 | en_US |
dcterms.abstract | The rapid expansion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been observed in many parts of the world. Many newly reported cases of COVID-19 during early outbreak phases have been associated with travel history from an epidemic region (identified as imported cases). For those cases without travel history, the risk of wider spreads through community contact is even higher. However, most population models assume a homogeneous infected population without considering that the imported and secondary cases contracted by the imported cases can pose different risks to community spread. We have developed an “easy-to-use” mathematical framework extending from a meta-population model embedding city-to-city connections to stratify the dynamics of transmission waves caused by imported, secondary, and others from an outbreak source region when control measures are considered. Using the cumulative number of the secondary cases, we are able to determine the probability of community spread. Using the top 10 visiting cities from Wuhan in China as an example, we first demonstrated that the arrival time and the dynamics of the outbreaks at these cities can be successfully predicted under the reproduction number R0 = 2.92 and incubation period τ = 5.2 days. Next, we showed that although control measures can gain extra 32.5 and 44.0 days in arrival time through an intensive border control measure and a shorter time to quarantine under a low R0 (1.4), if the R0 is higher (2.92), only 10 extra days can be gained for each of the same measures. This suggests the importance of lowering the incidence at source regions together with infectious disease control measures in susceptible regions. The study allows us to assess the effects of border control and quarantine measures on the emergence and global spread of COVID-19 in a fully connected world using the dynamics of the secondary cases. | en_US |
dcterms.accessRights | open access | en_US |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Epidemics, Sept. 2020, v. 32, 100397 | en_US |
dcterms.isPartOf | Epidemics | en_US |
dcterms.issued | 2020-09 | - |
dc.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-85086396048 | - |
dc.identifier.pmid | 32540727 | - |
dc.identifier.eissn | 1878-0067 | en_US |
dc.identifier.artn | 100397 | en_US |
dc.description.validate | 202007 bcwh | en_US |
dc.description.oa | Version of Record | en_US |
dc.identifier.FolderNumber | a0993-n13, OA_Others | en_US |
dc.identifier.SubFormID | 2341 | - |
dc.description.fundingSource | Self-funded | en_US |
dc.description.pubStatus | Published | en_US |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
hossain_effects_border_control.pdf | 1.62 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Page views
195
Last Week
0
0
Last month
Citations as of May 12, 2024
Downloads
34
Citations as of May 12, 2024
SCOPUSTM
Citations
61
Citations as of May 16, 2024
WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations
48
Citations as of May 16, 2024
Google ScholarTM
Check
Altmetric
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.