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Title: | Real-time estimation of the reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China in 2020 based on incidence data | Authors: | Wang, K Zhao, S Li, HL Song, YT Wang, L Wang, MH Peng, ZH Li, H He, DH |
Issue Date: | Jun-2020 | Source: | Annals of translational medicine, June 2020, v. 8, no. 11, 689 | Abstract: | Background: Since the first appearance in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has posed serious threats to the public health in many Chinese places and overseas. It is essential to quantify the transmissibility on real-time basis for designing public health responses. Methods: We estimated the time-varying reproduction numbers in China, Hubei province and Wuhan city by using the renewable equation determined by the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19. We compare the average reproduction numbers in different periods of time to explore the effectiveness of the public health control measures against the COVID-19 epidemic. Results: We estimated the reproduction numbers at 2.61 (95% CI: 2.47-2.75), 2.76 (95% CI: 2.54-2.95) and 2.71 (95% CI: 2.43-3.01) for China, Hubei province and Wuhan respectively. We found that the reproduction number largely dropped after the city lockdown. As of February 16, the three reproduction numbers further reduced to 0.98, 1.14 and 1.41 respectively. Conclusions: The control of COVID-19 epidemic was effective in substantially reducing the disease transmissibility in terms of the reproduction number in China reduced to 0.98 as of February 16. At the same time, the reproduction number in Wuhan was probably still larger than 1, and thus the enhancement in the public health control was recommended to maintain. |
Keywords: | COVID-19 Outbreak Modelling Reproduction number Serial interval |
Publisher: | AME Publishing Company | Journal: | Annals of translational medicine | ISSN: | 2305-5839 | EISSN: | 2305-5847 | DOI: | 10.21037/atm-20-1944 | Rights: | © Annals of Translational Medicine This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits the non-commercial replication and distribution of the article with the strict proviso that no changes or edits are made and the original work is properly cited (including links to both the formal publication through the relevant DOI and the license). See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. The following publication Wang K, Zhao S, Li H, Song Y, Wang L, Wang MH, Peng Z, Li H, He D. Real-time estimation of the reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China in 2020 based on incidence data. Ann Transl Med 2020 ; 8(11):689 is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.21037/atm-20-1944 |
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