Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/81271
Title: Simple framework for real-time forecast in a data-limited situation : the Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in Brazil from 2015 to 2016 as an example
Authors: Zhao, S 
Musa, SS 
Fu, H
He, DH 
Qin, J 
Keywords: Zika virus
Brazil
Modeling analysis
Reproduction number
Epidemic size
Spatial heterogeneity
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher: BioMed Central
Source: Parasites & vectors, 12 July 2019, v. 12, 344, p. 1-13 How to cite?
Journal: Parasites & vectors 
Abstract: Background In 2015-2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) caused serious epidemics in Brazil. The key epidemiological parameters and spatial heterogeneity of ZIKV epidemics in different states in Brazil remain unclear. Early prediction of the final epidemic (or outbreak) size for ZIKV outbreaks is crucial for public health decision-making and mitigation planning. We investigated the spatial heterogeneity in the epidemiological features of ZIKV across eight different Brazilian states by using simple non-linear growth models.
Results We fitted three different models to the weekly reported ZIKV cases in eight different states and obtained an R-2 larger than 0.995. The estimated average values of basic reproduction numbers from different states varied from 2.07 to 3.41, with a mean of 2.77. The estimated turning points of the epidemics also varied across different states. The estimation of turning points nevertheless is stable and real-time. The forecast of the final epidemic size (attack rate) is reasonably accurate, shortly after the turning point. The knowledge of the epidemic turning point is crucial for accurate real-time projection of the outbreak.
Conclusions Our simple models fitted the epidemic reasonably well and thus revealed the spatial heterogeneity in the epidemiological features across Brazilian states. The knowledge of the epidemic turning point is crucial for real-time projection of the outbreak size. Our real-time estimation framework is able to yield a reliable prediction of the final epidemic size.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/81271
EISSN: 1756-3305
DOI: 10.1186/s13071-019-3602-9
Rights: © The Author(s) 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
The following publication Zhao, S., Musa, S. S., Fu, H., He, D. H., & Qin, J. (2019). Simple framework for real-time forecast in a data-limited situation: the Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in Brazil from 2015 to 2016 as an example. Parasites & Vectors, 12, 344, 1-13 is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13071-019-3602-9
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