Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/68352
Title: A comparison study of Zika virus outbreaks in French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia in Brazil
Authors: He, DH 
Gao, DZ
Lou, Y 
Zhao, S 
Ruan, SG
Keywords: West-nile-virus
Drought-induced amplification
Transmission
Disease
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Source: Scientific reports, 2017, v. 7, 273 How to cite?
Journal: Scientific reports 
Abstract: Zika virus (ZIKV) disease outbreaks occurred in French Polynesia in 2013-2014 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2015-2016, respectively. Using our recently developed ZIKV disease model, we simulated the reported ZIKV infection cases from French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia of Brazil. Moreover, we estimated that the infection attack rates were 78.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5-86.3%) in French Polynesia which closely matches a previous serological study; 20.8% ( 95% CI: 1.1-50.0%) in Colombia which suggests that the attack rate was most likely less than 50%; and 32.4% (95% CI: 2.5-94.2%) in the State of Bahia in Brazil which suggests that the attack rate is unidentifiable with monthly data in Bahia. Furthermore, we found that the association of precipitation and ZIKV outbreak was more evident in Colombia than the other two places. These results are helpful for us to understand the possible evolution, to control the on-going outbreaks, to prevent the potential geographic spread, and to study the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of ZIKV.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/68352
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-00253-1
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