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http://hdl.handle.net/10397/6094
Title: | Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–a case study | Authors: | Lee, P Lam, TIP Yik, FWH Chan, EHW |
Issue Date: | Nov-2013 | Source: | Energy and buildings, Nov. 2013, v. 66, p. 353–363 | Abstract: | Lack of a proper assessment method on performance risks in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC)projects is one of the reasons hindering the further development of energy service companies (ESCOs)market. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to evaluate the probability of energy savingshortfall taking into account the variations in the influential parameters, including weather conditions,occupancy, operating hours, thermostat set-point, etc., during the contract period. The proposed methodinvolves the use of a detailed building energy simulation programme, sensitivity analysis and MonteCarlo simulation techniques. Empirical data is also used to develop the probability distribution functionsfor the identified parameters to simulate the actual yearly variations in the post-retrofit conditions. Areal case study of replacement of heat rejection system for a central chiller plant in Hong Kong is usedto demonstrate the application of this probabilistic method. The result shows that the possible energysavings after a 1-year retrofit period ranges from 393,000 kW h (2.86%) to 1098,000 kW h (10.8%) with90% statistical significance. | Keywords: | Performance contracting ESCOs Risks Monte Carlo simulation Sensitivity analysis |
Publisher: | Elsevier | Journal: | Energy and buildings | ISSN: | 0378-7788 | EISSN: | 1872-6178 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.07.018 | Rights: | © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy and Buildings. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy and Buildings, v. 66, (Nov. 2013) DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.07.018. |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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4_Lee_Risk_Energy_Contracting_Highlights.pdf | Highlights (Pre-published version) | 15.72 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
3_Lee_Risk_Energy_Contracting_Tables_with_Captions.pdf | Tables with Captions (Pre-published version) | 44.16 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
2_Lee_Risk_Energy_Contracting_Figures.pdf | Figures (Pre-published version) | 601.91 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
1_Lee_Risk_Energy_Contracting_Manuscript.pdf | Manuscript (Pre-published version) | 156.07 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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