Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/6094
Title: Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–a case study
Authors: Lee, P
Lam, TIP 
Yik, FWH
Chan, EHW 
Keywords: Performance contracting
ESCOs
Risks
Monte Carlo simulation
Sensitivity analysis
Issue Date: Nov-2013
Publisher: Elsevier
Source: Energy and buildings, Nov. 2013, v. 66, p. 353–363 How to cite?
Journal: Energy and buildings 
Abstract: Lack of a proper assessment method on performance risks in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC)projects is one of the reasons hindering the further development of energy service companies (ESCOs)market. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to evaluate the probability of energy savingshortfall taking into account the variations in the influential parameters, including weather conditions,occupancy, operating hours, thermostat set-point, etc., during the contract period. The proposed methodinvolves the use of a detailed building energy simulation programme, sensitivity analysis and MonteCarlo simulation techniques. Empirical data is also used to develop the probability distribution functionsfor the identified parameters to simulate the actual yearly variations in the post-retrofit conditions. Areal case study of replacement of heat rejection system for a central chiller plant in Hong Kong is usedto demonstrate the application of this probabilistic method. The result shows that the possible energysavings after a 1-year retrofit period ranges from 393,000 kW h (2.86%) to 1098,000 kW h (10.8%) with90% statistical significance.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/6094
ISSN: 0378-7788
DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.07.018
Rights: © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy and Buildings. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy and Buildings, v. 66, (Nov. 2013) DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2013.07.018.
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