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Title: Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas : a case study in Hong Kong
Authors: Zheng, HW 
Shen, GQ 
Wang, H
Hong, JK 
Keywords: Urban renewal
Land use change
Markov chain
Issue Date: Apr-2015
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Habitat international, Apr. 2015, v. 46, p. 23-34 How to cite?
Journal: Habitat international 
Abstract: A considerable amount of research has been conducted on land use change, as it is extremely helpful when it comes to decision-making and policy formulation. Although land use change in urban renewal areas differs from that in new towns, very little research has focused on urban renewal and even less at the local or district level where most decisions need to be made. This study therefore developed a model for simulating land use change in urban renewal districts by combining the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent (CLUE-S) model and the Markov chain prediction model. The Yau Tsim Mong district of Kowloon in Hong Kong was the study area for the simulation, and historical land utilization data from 2000 to 2009 was used to validate the proposed model. By applying the validated model, four future land use scenarios were simulated for 2018 (the baseline scenario, the open space scenario, the residential scenario and the balanced scenario). The results not only indicate the effectiveness of the proposed model but also provide alternatives for future urban renewal based on different policy directions taken in the land use planning process.
ISSN: 0197-3975
EISSN: 1873-5428
DOI: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.10.008
Rights: © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Habitat International. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. The definitive version Zheng, H. W., Shen, G. Q., Wang, H., & Hong, J. (2015). Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas: A case study in Hong Kong. Habitat International, 46, 23-34 is available at
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