Trends of climate change and air-conditioning load of residential buildings in China

Abstract

In this paper, using historical weather observations, the trends of outdoor temperature and solar radiation were analyzed. A model to estimate cooling degree-hours was developed using daily average temperature and solar radiation as parameters. Using heating/cooling load models developed by the authors in previous studies, trends of heating and cooling loads of residential buildings at 22 Chinese locations were clarified. The main conclusions from this study are as follows: (1) The yearly average dry-bulb temperature has risen by 1.0 degree during the period of 1961-2000; (2) The increasing rate of outdoor temperature in January is larger than that in July; (3) Solar radiation is decreasing at most of the 22 locations; there is little difference between seasons in the decreasing trends; (4) The heating load is decreasing at all the 22 locations; (5) The increasing rate of cooling load is positive at some locations while negative at others; (6) With the improvement of thermal insulation of buildings, heating and cooling loads will be less affected by climate change.