Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/17987
Title: Global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza in the post-pandemic era
Authors: He, D 
Lui, R
Wang, L
Tse, CK 
Yang, L 
Stone, L
Issue Date: 2015
Source: Scientific reports, 5 2015, v. 5, no. , p. 1-11
Abstract: We study the global spatio-temporal patterns of influenza dynamics. This is achieved by analysing and modelling weekly laboratory confirmed cases of influenza A and B from 138 countries between January 2006 and January 2015. The data were obtained from FluNet, the surveillance network compiled by the the World Health Organization. We report a pattern of skip-and-resurgence behavior between the years 2011 and 2013 for influenza H1N1pdm, the strain responsible for the 2009 pandemic, in Europe and Eastern Asia. In particular, the expected H1N1pdm epidemic outbreak in 2011/12 failed to occur (or "skipped") in many countries across the globe, although an outbreak occurred in the following year. We also report a pattern of well-synchronized wave of H1N1pdm in early 2011 in the Northern Hemisphere countries, and a pattern of replacement of strain H1N1pre by H1N1pdm between the 2009 and 2012 influenza seasons. Using both a statistical and a mechanistic mathematical model, and through fitting the data of 108 countries, we discuss the mechanisms that are likely to generate these events taking into account the role of multi-strain dynamics. A basic understanding of these patterns has important public health implications and scientific significance.
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Journal: Scientific reports 
EISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/srep11013
Rights: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
The following publication He, D. et al. Global Spatio-temporal Patterns of Influenza in the Post-pandemic Era. Sci. Rep. 5, 11013 (2015) is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep11013
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