Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1719
Title: | An empirical study of forecast combination in tourism | Authors: | Song, H Witt, SF Wong, KKF Wu, DC |
Issue Date: | 1-Feb-2009 | Source: | Journal of hospitality and tourism research, 1 Feb. 2009, v. 33, no. 1, p. 3-29 | Abstract: | The performance of forecast combination techniques is explored at different time horizons in the context of tourism demand forecasting. Statistical comparisons between the combination and single-model forecasts show that the combined forecasts are significantly more accurate than the average single-model forecasts across all forecasting horizons and for all combination methods. This provides a strong recommendation for forecast combination in tourism. In addition, the empirical results indicate that forecast accuracy does not improve as the number of models included in the combination forecasts increases. It also appears that combining forecasts may be more beneficial for longer-term forecasting. | Keywords: | Forecast combination Forecasting accuracy Tourism demand |
Publisher: | SAGE Publications | Journal: | Journal of hospitality and tourism research | ISSN: | 1096-3480 | EISSN: | 1557-7554 | DOI: | 10.1177/1096348008321366 | Rights: | © 2009 International Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education |
Appears in Collections: | Journal/Magazine Article |
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12-Empirical.pdf | Pre-published version | 162.9 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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