Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1660
Title: Effect of seasonality treatment on the forecasting performance of tourism demand models
Authors: Shen, S
Li, G
Song, H 
Keywords: Seasonality
Tourism demand
Forecasting
Seasonal unit roots
Econometric model
Time-series model
Issue Date: Dec-2009
Publisher: IP Publishing Ltd.
Source: Tourism economics, Dec. 2009, v. 15, no. 4, p. 693-708 How to cite?
Journal: Tourism economics 
Abstract: This study provides a comprehensive comparison of the performance of the commonly used econometric and time-series models in forecasting seasonal tourism demand. The empirical study is carried out based on the demand for outbound leisure tourism by UK residents to seven destination countries: Australia, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and the USA. In the modelling exercise, the seasonality of the data is treated using the deterministic seasonal dummies, seasonal unit root test techniques and the unobservable component method. The empirical results suggest that no single forecasting technique is superior to the others in all situations. As far as overall forecast accuracy is concerned, the Johansen maximum likelihood error correction model outperforms the other models. The time-series models also show superior performance in dealing with seasonality. However, the time-varying parameter model performs relatively poorly in forecasting seasonal tourism demand. This empirical evidence suggests that the methods of seasonality treatment affect the forecasting performance of the models and that the pre-test for seasonal unit roots is necessary and can improve forecast accuracy.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1660
ISSN: 1354-8166
Rights: Copyright © 2009 IP Publishing Ltd. Reproduced by permission. The journal web site is located at www.ippublishing.com.
Appears in Collections:Journal/Magazine Article

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Shen.pdf154.31 kBAdobe PDFView/Open
Access
View full-text via PolyU eLinks SFX Query
Show full item record

WEB OF SCIENCETM
Citations

2
Last Week
0
Last month
0
Citations as of Sep 18, 2016

Page view(s)

447
Last Week
0
Last month
Checked on Sep 25, 2016

Download(s)

1,440
Checked on Sep 25, 2016

Google ScholarTM

Check



Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.