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Title: Effects of temperature on mortality in Hong Kong : a time series analysis
Authors: Yi, W
Chan, APC 
Keywords: Cardiovascular mortality
Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM)
Respiratory mortality
Issue Date: Jul-2015
Publisher: Springer New York LLC
Source: International journal of biometeorology, July 2015, v. 59, no. 7, p. 927-936 How to cite?
Journal: International Journal of Biometeorology 
Abstract: Although interest in assessing the impacts of hot temperature and mortality in Hong Kong has increased, lessevidence on the effect of cold temperature on mortality is available. We examined both the effects of heat and cold temperatures on daily mortality in Hong Kong for the last decade (2002–2011). A quasi-Poisson model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperatures on cause-specific and age-specific mortality. Non-linear effects of temperature on mortality were identified. The relative risk of nonaccidental mortality associated with cold temperature (11.1 °C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 19.4 °C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.17 (95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 1.29) for lags 0–13. The relative risk of non-accidental mortality associated with high temperature (31.5 °C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 27.8 °C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.09 (95%CI: 1.03, 1.17) for lags 0–3. InHongKong, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. The effect of cold lasted longer and greater than that of heat. People older than 75 years were the most vulnerable group to cold temperature, while people aged 65–74 were the most vulnerable group to hot temperature. Our findings may have implications for developing intervention strategies for extreme cold and hot temperatures.
ISSN: 0020-7128
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-014-0895-4
Rights: ©ISB 2014
The following publication Yi, W., & Chan, A. P. C. (2015). Effects of temperature on mortality in hong kong: A time series analysis. International Journal of Biometeorology, 59(7), 927-936 is published by Springer and is available at The original publication is available at
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