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Title: New forecasting models
Authors: Li, G
Song, H 
Keywords: Forecasting models
Time varying parameter (TVP)
Almost ideal demand system (AIDS)
Issue Date: 2007
Publisher: Haworth Press (Routledge)
Source: Journal of travel & tourism marketing, 2007, v. 21, no. 4, p. 3-13 How to cite?
Journal: Journal of travel & tourism marketing 
Abstract: Tourism forecasting plays an important role in tourism planning and management. Various forecasting techniques have been developed and applied to the tourism context, amongst which econometric forecasting has been winning an increasing popularity in tourism research. This paper therefore aims to introduce the latest developments of econometric forecasting approaches and their applications to tourism demand analysis. Particular emphases are placed on the time varying parameter (TVP) forecasting technique and its application to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS). The discussions in this paper fall into two main parts, in line with the two broad categories of econometric forecasting approaches: the first part refers to the single-equation forecasting techniques, focusing particularly on both long-run and short-term TVP models. The second part introduces the system-of-equations forecasting models, represented by the AIDS and its dynamic versions including the combination with the TVP technique, will be discussed one by one following the order of methodological developments.
ISSN: 1054-8408 (print)
1540-7306 (online)
DOI: 10.1300/J073v21n04_02
Rights: © 2006 by The Haworth Press, Inc.
This is an electronic version of an article published in G. Li and H. Song (2006), Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 21(4), 3-13. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing is available online at, the open URL of the article:
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