Forecasting Chinese outbound tourism recovery : a Triple-layer forecast combination framework

Abstract

Forecast combinations became particularly significant in the post-pandemic era due to heightened uncertainty. This study introduces a Triple-layer Forecast Combination Framework to predict Chinese outbound tourism recovery from August 2023 to July 2024 across 20 destinations. The framework integrates baseline quantitative models, expert-based model selection, and real-time judgmental adjustments to enhance forecast accuracy in post-crisis contexts. Results show Chinese visitor arrivals rebounding, on average, to 80% of July 2019 levels by mid-2024, with East and Southeast Asia—particularly Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, and Thailand—recovering faster than long-haul markets such as Hawaii, Canada, and the Czech Republic. By combining statistical rigor with contextual insight, the framework supports replicable, adaptive forecasting under uncertainty for tourism recovery planning.