Assessing the dynamic impacts of remote work in New York city

Abstract

Working from Home (WFH) has stabilized above pre-pandemic levels, yet its long-term and multidimensional impacts remain unclear. This study explored different WFH arrangements within urban dynamics. Three scenarios in New York City—fully on-site, fully flexible, and structured hybrid—were designed to evaluate the long-term systematic impacts of WFH on population, economy, and environment from 2020 to 2035. An agent-based land use and transport interaction model incorporating a WFH module (i.e., SelfSim-WFH) was developed to capture the feedback of individuals’ WFH decisions and other associated urban elements. Results suggest that: (1) WFH induces a “donut effect,” with decentralization of residence and employment leading to longer home-work distance; (2) housing market growth slows, with rents responding more sensitively, while office rent declines; and (3) environmental gains from reduced commuting are partially offset by longer home-work distance and modal shifts, causing rebound effects in emissions and energy use under certain scenarios.