Spatiotemporal trends and driving factors of global impervious surface area changes from 2001 to 2020

Abstract

The change in impervious surface area (ISA) is an important factor reflecting urban expansion. This study used the global ISA dataset to analyze the spatiotemporal changes in ISA from 2001 to 2020 worldwide, explored the hotspots and patterns of ISA expansion, and analyzed the natural and socio-economic factors affecting ISA changes at three different levels, namely the continent, country, and city levels, by using the RF-SHAP method. The results are as follows: (1) The ISA has grown by 0.94 million km2. (2) ISA in regions such as Asia and Africa has expanded faster than the global average. Developed countries had lower expansion rates. The hotspots of the ISA change rate were relatively concentrated in eastern Asia. Hotspot areas were mainly distributed in Asia and eastern South America in the early stage of the study period and appeared in eastern Europe in the later stage. (3) Edge expansion is the main pattern. Upper-middle-income countries have the largest area of ISA expansion, followed by high-income countries. Cities in developed countries have more infilling expansion; cities in developing countries have more edge expansion. (4) At the continent and country level, social factors, especially GDP, have the greatest impact on ISA change. At the city level, natural factors play a more influential role.