Populism and global infrastructure investment

Abstract

Populism has surged globally amid increasing globalization and political polarization. This study examines the divergent effects of left-wing and right-wing populist governments on infrastructure investment. Using panel data from 59 countries between 1990 and 2019, we find that left-wing populist governments significantly reduce infrastructure investment, while right-wing populist governments do not exhibit a similar impact. Mechanism analysis reveals that left-wing populist governments impair infrastructure investment by weakening legal institutions and deteriorating market governance institutions, whereas right-wing populist governments do not have such effects. Furthermore, the negative effects of left populism are particularly pronounced in three types of countries: those with multi-chamber parliamentary systems, those classified as low-income economies, and those with higher debt-to-GDP ratios. This research enriches the understanding of the economic consequences of populism and the lasting impacts of populist policies on infrastructure development, and contributes to the ongoing debate on the complex relationship between populism and economic outcomes.