Uncertain operation region of electricity-hydrogen virtual power plant : concept and description method

Abstract

The Electric-Hydrogen Virtual Power Plant aggregates internal distributed energy resources to achieve joint electricity and hydrogen output, providing a new pathway for accommodating surplus renewable energy generation. However, precise modeling methods for the uncertain operating region of EH-VPP remain challenging. In this regard, this paper first defines the uncertain operating region of EH-VPP and constructs its internal optimization model. Then, based on multi-parameter programming theory and the cutting-plane method, the mapping relationship of the EH-VPP electricity‑hydrogen joint output curve is analytically derived. Based on this, the probability density function of the projection points of the electricity‑hydrogen joint curve onto the hydrogen production rate axis is derived, incorporating the known probability distributions of input random variables, thereby enabling probabilistic modeling of the uncertain operating region boundary. Finally, the opportunity constraint method is applied to construct the uncertain operating region of EH-VPP, which is then used in the coordinated scheduling optimization of the electric‑hydrogen integrated energy system. Simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently characterizes the uncertain operating region with an error of less than 0.05 %, supports flexible modeling based on confidence levels, and ensures both scheduling security and computational efficiency in large-scale collaborative scheduling scenarios.