Reliability of inland water transportation complex network based on percolation theory : an empirical analysis in the Yangtze River

Abstract

Inland water transportation is regarded as a crucial component of global trade, yet its reliability has been increasingly challenged by uncertainties such as extreme weather, port congestion, and geopolitical tensions. Although substantial research has focused on the structural characteristics of inland water transportation networks, the dynamic responses of these networks to disruptions remain insufficiently explored. This gap in understanding is critical for enhancing the resilience of global transportation systems as trade volumes grow and risks intensify. In this study, percolation theory was applied to evaluate the reliability of the Yangtze River transportation network. Ship voyage data from 2019 were used to construct a complex network model, and simulations of node removal were performed to identify key vulnerabilities within the network. The results showed that the failure of specific nodes significantly impacts the network's connectivity, suggesting which nodes should be prioritized for protection. This research offers a dynamic framework for the assessment of inland water transportation network reliability and provides new insights that could guide policy decisions to improve the resilience of critical waterway systems. By identifying potential points of failure, this study contributes to the development of a more robust global trade infrastructure.