Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1127
Title: Tourism demand modelling and forecasting : a review of recent research
Authors: Song, H 
Li, G
Keywords: Tourism demand
Modelling
Forecasting
Issue Date: Apr-2008
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd.
Source: Tourism management, Apr. 2008, v. 29, no. 2, p. 203-220 How to cite?
Journal: Tourism management 
Abstract: This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there is no single model that consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Furthermore, this study identifies some new research directions, which include improving the forecasting accuracy through forecast combination; integrating both qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches, tourism cycles and seasonality analysis, events' impact assessment and risk forecasting.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/1127
ISSN: 0261-5177
DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016
Rights: Tourism Management © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. The journal web site is located at http://www.sciencedirect.com.
Appears in Collections:Journal/Magazine Article

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