Runoff simulation in data-scarce alpine regions : comparative analysis based on LSTM and physically based models

Abstract

Runoff simulation is essential for effective water resource management and plays a pivotal role in hydrological forecasting. Improving the quality of runoff simulation and forecasting continues to be a highly relevant research area. The complexity of the terrain and the scarcity of long-term runoff observation data have significantly limited the application of Physically Based Models (PBMs) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). Recently, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network has been found to be effective in learning the dynamic hydrological characteristics of watersheds and outperforming some traditional PBMs in runoff simulation. However, the extent to which the LSTM works in data-scarce alpine regions remains unclear. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of LSTM in alpine basins in QTP, as well as the simulation performance of transfer-based LSTM (T-LSTM) in data-scarce alpine regions. The Lhasa River Basin (LRB) and Nyang River Basin (NRB) were the study areas, and the performance of the LSTM model was compared to that of PBMs by relying solely on the meteorological inputs. The results show that the average values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), and Relative Bias (RBias) for B-LSTM were 0.80, 0.85, and 4.21%, respectively, while the corresponding values for G-LSTM were 0.81, 0.84, and 3.19%. In comparison to a PBM- the Block-Wise use of TOPMEDEL (BTOP), LSTM has an average enhancement of 0.23, 0.36, and −18.36%, respectively. In both basins, LSTM significantly outperforms the BTOP model. Furthermore, the transfer learning-based LSTM model (T-LSTM) at the multi-watershed scale demonstrates that, when the input data are somewhat representative, even if the amount of data are limited, T-LSTM can obtain more accurate results than hydrological models specifically calibrated for individual watersheds. This result indicates that LSTM can effectively improve the runoff simulation performance in alpine regions and can be applied to runoff simulation in data-scarce regions.