Prevalence, incidence, and survival analysis of interstitial lung diseases in Hong Kong : a 16-year population-based cohort study

Abstract

Background: Published data on the epidemiology of interstitial lung disease (ILD) in Asia is scarce. Understanding the epidemiology is important for authorities in the health management planning. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence, incidence, and survival of ILD in Hong Kong from 2005 to 2020 and evaluate the change of trend over time. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified ILD patients between 2005 and 2020 using a territory-wide electronic health record database. Prevalence, incidence rates, and age- and sex-standardised incidence rates with United Nations population in 2020 as a reference were estimated. Trends in prevalence and incidence were analysed using joinpoint regression and the average annual percent change (AAPC) was estimated. Median survival, and risk factors of mortality were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression. Findings: We identified 5924 patients and included 5884 of them for analysis. The prevalence of ILD increased from 24.7 to 33.6 per 100,000 population from 2005 to 2020 with an AAPC of 1.94 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.69–2.34). The standardized incidence rate decreased from 5.36 to 2.57 per 100,000 person from 2005 to 2020 (AAPC −3.56, 95% CI, −4.95 to −1.78). The median survival of ILD was 2.50 (95% CI, 2.32–2.69) years. Male, older age, higher Charlson comorbidity index, and IIP subtype were associated with increased mortality with statistical significance. Interpretation: This study provided the first epidemiological evaluation of ILD in Hong Kong. Further studies on ILD in multiple Asian cities and countries are warranted.