Modeling no-shows, cancellations, overbooking, and walk-ins in restaurant revenue management

Abstract

Few studies have examined overbooking in the restaurant industry. The authors observed the business situation in a restaurant in Hong Kong over 2 years, noted how demand exceeded supply on a regular basis, and analyzed the reservation data. The reservation data were used to estimate the no-show/cancellation probability and walk-ins for lunch and dinner on different days of the week, to illustrate the model, and to arrive at the optimal booking limits. A conceptual model was developed which would take into consideration the business situation, no-shows, cancellations, and walk-ins to determine the booking limit for maximizing the expected total revenue.