Use of fuzzy fault tree analysis and Bayesian network for occurrence likelihood estimation of navigational accidents in the Qinzhou Port

Abstract

This paper utilizes a fuzzy fault tree analysis and Noisy-OR gate Bayesian network to estimate the occurrence likelihood of navigational accidents. The kernel of this proposed method is first to construct the fault tree from investigation reports of navigational accidents, to calculate the occurrence probability of basic events using fuzzy set, to transform the fault tree to Bayesian network using the Noisy-OR gate. The merit of the developed model can overcome the problem of absolute description of the relationships between basic events and intermediate events. Finally, the model is applied to Qinzhou Port, the results are reasonable by comparing the results in other waterways. Moreover, the key influencing factors are identified from minimum cut set analysis and sensitive influencing factors are quantified sensitivity analysis. Consequently, the findings are beneficial for the maritime authorities to take countermeasures for navigational accidents prevention.