Probabilistic projections of hydrological droughts through convection‐permitting climate simulations and multimodel hydrological predictions

Abstract

The reliable projection of future changes in hydrological drought characteristics plays a crucial role in providing meaningful insights into agricultural development and water resources planning under climate change. In this study, we develop probabilistic projections of hydrological drought characteristics through a convection-permitting climate simulation and a multimodel hydrological prediction for two major river basins in South Texas of the United States. The probabilistic hydrological drought projection depicts the future evolution of spatiotemporal characteristics of droughts under best- and worst-case scenarios. Our findings reveal that there is a considerable variation in hydrological drought regimes near the urban area in South Texas. And the prolonged severe drought events are expected to be punctuated by the increasing extreme precipitation in a changing climate. This could lead to an increasing number of the dry-wet abrupt alternation events. Moreover, hydrological droughts are projected to occur more frequently for the fall season in the Guadalupe River Basin and for the winter season in the Blanco River Basin, advancing our understanding of future changes in seasonal characteristics of hydrological droughts at a river basin scale.