New infectious disease onset risk prediction method and device, terminal equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention is suitable for the technical field of virus risk prediction, and provides a new infectious disease onset risk prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: establishing a prediction model to predict a new infectious disease onset risk value according to case spatio-temporal data of each diagnosed case in a target region and population flow data of the region, and obtaining a prediction result; when the accuracy of the prediction result meets a preset requirement, obtaining the case spatio-temporal data of a newly-added definite case in the target area and population flow data of the area where the newly-added definite case is located in real time, and then predicting the onset risk of the newly-onset infectious disease in a second preset time period in the future according to the prediction model. Through the case spatio-temporal data, the population flow data of the corresponding region and the prediction model subjected to accuracy verification, the onset risk value in the target region within the second preset time period in the future is predicted, so the accuracy of onset risk prediction of the new infectious disease is improved; and the onset risk of the new infectious diseases with unknown pathological parameter characteristics can be accurately predicted. 本申请适用于病毒风险预测技术领域，提供了一种新发传染病发病风险预测方法，包括：根据获取目标区域中每个确诊病例的病例时空数据及所在地区的人口流动数据，建立预测模型预测新发传染病发病风险值，得到预测结果，并在预测结果的准确性满足预设要求时，通过实时获取目标区域中新增确诊病例的病例时空数据和所在地区的人口流动数据，再根据预测模型预测未来的第二预设时间段内的新发传染病发病风险。通过病例时空数据、对应地区的人口流动数据和已进行准确性验证的预测模型，预测未来的第二预设时间段内目标区域中的发病风险值，提高了对新发传染病发病风险预测的准确性，且对未知病学参数特性的新发传染病也可准确预测新发传染病发病风险。