Short-time traffic flow prediction method and device

Abstract

The invention is suitable for the traffic field and provides a short-time traffic flow prediction method and device. The short-time traffic flow prediction method comprises steps that a macro traffic flow model is acquired; a state vector, a state equation, an observation vector and an observation equation are determined; a data assimilation system framework for traffic flow prediction is constructed; observation data of different observation period types are classified and sampled; historical observation data are fused, and missing observation values at the present time period are completed based on the adjusted data assimilation method of set Kalman filtering; based on the data assimilation method, model parameters of a macroscopic traffic flow model are corrected and adjusted; the macroscopic traffic flow model after model parameter adjustment is utilized to predict the traffic flow in the future. The short-time traffic flow prediction method is advantaged in that the traffic flow in the future can be predicted, moreover, online adjustment is realized, and the short-time traffic flow prediction method is easy to promote. 本发明适用于交通领域，提供了一种短时交通流量预测方法及装置，所述交通流量预测方法包括：获取宏观交通流模型；确定状态向量、状态方程、观测向量和观测方程；构建用于交通流量预测的数据同化系统框架；将不同观测时段类型的观测数据进行分类采样；融合历史观测数据，基于调整的集合卡尔曼滤波的数据同化方法，补齐当前时刻路段缺失的观测值；基于所述数据同化方法，对所述宏观交通流模型的模型参数进行修正调整；利用调整模型参数后的所述宏观交通流模型，对未来时刻的交通流量进行预测；本发明能够对未来时刻的交通流量进行预测，同时实现了在线调整，易于推广。