A study of transportation planning model for developing area

Abstract

Along with the rapid economic development in many developing countries such as P. R. China, the patterns of urban development have been greatly changed. To catch for this change, lots of transportation systems and traffic infrastructures are under planning and construction. However, investment decisions in the urban transportation sector in developing areas reflect more and more changing emphasis from purely technical and economic solutions to broader system planning approaches involving the various sectors of the government and the community and taking into account human, social, economic and environmental factors and goals. In order to make urban transport investments and policies in developing areas more effective, it is necessary to analysis and evaluate a wide range of alternative transport solutions before selecting those most adequate for detailed study. This thesis therefore presents some discussions about appraising and improving existing decision making tools available in the form of simplified traffic computer models. This thesis focuses on the study of "strategic" models and provides information on the degree of simplification which is compatible with meaningful results. Many different mathematical models have been developed to represent the traffic conditions in urban areas. Such models normally consist of computer programmes which accept data describing a basic transport situation and hence may be used to estimate the effects on traffic of possible future changes. These models are simplified to the extent that they facilitate rapid analysis of many alternative transport policies, but to serve this purpose it is also necessary in some instances to retain considerable detail in particular aspects of the conditions studied, such as the use of a particular mode of transport or the group of the population which benefits or pays for a particular change. It should be recognised that models suitable for strategic studies have particular characteristics. The basic requirement is that large changes in transport systems can be dealt with and for this reason it is usually necessary to study the equilibrium between supply of transport (in terms of infrastructure and level of service) and the corresponding demand. It is also necessary to be able to study changes in land use and the distribution of various activities. It is important that the correct balance is struck between expenditure on the collection of data and on modelling and analysis. This is assisted by the fact that equilibrium models provide specific information on the accuracy of their results. The transferability of data from one city to another deserves further consideration and improved international accessibility of transportation study data through a form of data bank may be beneficial. It should be emphasised that strategic transport planning models are in their infancy and it is clear that an important step towards making them more useful for policy decisions would be to have improved criteria to define the quality of existing and proposed transport systems and services. It would be desirable to include environmental factors in such criteria. Finally, a practical strategic transport planning model has been put into use in the RDS (Railway Development Study) Project in Shenzhen, some specific methodologies and evaluations are also presented in this thesis.