Simulation and outlook of residential energy consumption in Hong Kong

Abstract

In Hong Kong, the total residential energy consumption has been increased quite rapidly for the last twenty years. In 1982, the total residential energy consumption was about 18,485 TJ, in which electricity, kerosene, LPG and town gas accounted for 49.9%, 21.4%, 15.2% and 13.5% respectively. The total residential energy consumption in 1998 was greatly increased to 49,144 TJ, with 66.7% for electricity, 25.5% for town gas, 6.4% for LPG and 1.4% for kerosene. Within only 16 years, the total energy consumption in the residential sector was not only changed, but also the fuel composition was affected. Lack of simulation and outlook in energy supply and demand in Hong Kong has caused a tremendous waste in capital investment in its energy industry and difficulties for the local government to make right decisions towards its energy policy in the territory. A continuous right energy supply and consumption forecast can also help the government to plan its environmental policy and solve the deteriorating environment pollution problem. This research project intends to develop a simulation model, collect data and make an outlook for short-term energy consumption simulation and forecast in the residential sector in Hong Kong for paving the way to develop a general simulation model for all the sectors. A time series model is developed for simulating the residential energy consumption in Hong Kong. It can predict the future residential energy consumption if the past residential energy consumption trends are known. Time series model is a sequence of observed values of a variable referring to different periods of time, which are generally regular. Time series analysis uses these data to elaborate a model that describes the behavior of this variable acceptably for the past and allows making satisfactory forecasts for the future. The simulation is made of the most important variables describing the residential energy use in Hong Kong, which includes the past and current residential energy consumption data. As a result, the model can be used to predict the residential energy consumption in Hong Kong for up to five years. Data availability is crucial for all the energy supply and consumption simulation and forecast. Significant effort has been made to collect and analyze various data related to the simulation and outlook. The simulation is validated using recent year's data with good results. The residential energy consumption from 1999 to 2003 has been forecasted. The total residential energy consumption in Hong Kong will reach to 64,243 TJ in 2003, an increase of 30% compared with figure in 1998 due to high population increase rate and continuous improvement of living standard. It means that there is a 6.2% increase in the residential energy consumption per year.