A multi-perspective scenario-based roadmapping for strategic planning and technology forecasting

Abstract

Nowadays, flexibility is one of key factors when dealing with future changes in the complex and rapidly changing business environment. Technology change driven forward by innovation, affects everybody's business. Smart organizations do not wait for change to happen but proactively monitor and take the advantage of the changing environment and new innovations. On the other hand, the existing methods for technology forecasting and assessment considerably help technology management professionals. However, there are a number of challenges and limitations for traditional technology forecasting and assessment based on roadmapping which include: (a) Most of the existing roadmapping processes heavily rely on expert knowledge, experience and opinions. The roadmapping process can only be successful when participants have good technical realization and comprehensive knowledge in a mature market which provide rich information. (b) Few researchers are paying attention to supporting roadmapping by scenario planning at organizational level. The existing scenario-based roadmapping approaches are used widely to monitor and analyze future changes for foresight in national and industrial levels. However, there is a gap in regard to how to embed the scenarios into roadmaps to plan for the future actions at organizational and operational levels. (c) Most previous research may not be practical because the focus is on building simple scenarios to support technology roadmapping or simply suggesting the concept of multi-path roadmapping, but not evaluating the outcomes of the scenario(s) and how to reflect the outcomes on the scenario-based roadmap. To address the challenges and limitations found in the literature on technology forecasting and assessment, a multi-perspective scenario-based roadmapping (MSBRM) methodology for strategic planning and technology forecasting is presented which incorporates scenario planning (macro level) and roadmapping (micro level) perspectives. The proposed method was designed and developed for companies to build possible scenarios reflecting future situations in practice, to assess the impact of each scenario, and to develop roadmaps that incorporate the external and internal issues as well as the actions according to the scenarios. In the present study, the proposed MSBRM method consists of five main phases, namely prerequisite preparation (Phase 1), scenario team formation (Phase 2), scenario building (Phase 3), scenario assessment and selection (Phase 4), and scenario-based roadmapping (Phase 5). A guideline for scenario building was designed for the organizations to construct the possible scenarios in a consistent and qualitative format by adapting the principles of the Kipling method (5W1H, i.e. what, when, where, who, why and how) and the six thinking hats method. A series of validation and assessment criteria and a scoring system were designed and developed to validate and assess the possible future scenarios quantitatively, in order to generate the scenario pool for scenario selection. A total of five criteria were designed and developed to select the plausible future scenario(s) for implementing roadmapping. A hybrid roadmapping method was designed and developed to generate a preliminary and organizational roadmap with action plans according to the selected plausible scenario(s) from outside-in and inside-out perspectives. An information-driven scenario building method (IDSBM) is presented to facilitate the development process of the proposed MSBRM method. The proposed method was designed and developed for companies to identify scenario elements and generate scenario narratives in order to implement scenario-based roadmapping by using scenario-oriented information. In the present study, the proposed IDSBM comprises five main phases, that are information acquisition (i.e. Phase 1), metadata construction (i.e. Phase 2), keyword extraction (i.e. Phase 3), scenario elements identification (i.e. Phase 4), and scenario narrative generation (i.e. Phase 5). A series of definitions and identification rules was designed for organizations to identify and capture the components of the scenario elements (i.e. what, when, where, who, why and how) from the collected scenario-oriented information. A method of scenario narrative generation was designed and developed to construct narratives in a consistent and qualitative format for building information-driven scenarios and outside-in scenario-based roadmaps by using narrative tags. To realize the capability of the proposed methods, two case studies were conducted in two companies in Hong Kong. Encouraging results have been obtained. Two target companies made positive comments on the proposed MSBRM and IDSB methods which is relatively effective and easy to use, even though they had good knowledge and technical realization of the mature market and technology in the testing, inspection and certification (TIC) and information and communication technology (ICT) industries. On the whole, the study attempts to develop methodologies of the proposed MSBRM and IDSB approaches as flexible and practical tools for strategic planning and technology forecasting. The successful development of the MSBRM and IDSB methods will not only address the limitations and challenges in traditional roadmapping-based technology forecasting and assessment methods but also open up a new way for strategic planning and technology forecasting.