A study on transshipment throughput of Hong Kong port

Abstract

Transshipment throughput has been growing fast in the last decade. This thesis analyses on the transshipment and direct shipment with the focus of Hong Kong Port. Impacts from other related ports, namely the Port of Shenzhen and the Port of Shanghai, are tested. During the past ten years, transshipment of Hong Kong Port has been growing to reach more than 70% of total throughput from less than 40%. Specifically, I have looked at the changing pattern of Hong Kong Port from a gateway port to a transshipment hub. I name this phenomenon as a "Transshipment Reformation of Hong Kong". I attempt to explain this reformation by reviewing global economic environment changes, analyzing regional port competitions and modeling throughput prediction. Empirical analysis reveals the changing pattern of Hong Kong port versus the effect of rapid growth of Shenzhen port. The transshipment data of Hong Kong in the past 13 years also presents an increasing trend and a feature of non-stationarity. Based on these features, I have conducted a series of econometrics studies on this transshipment data. I qualify and quantify the external impact of one port on another port, and the internal impact of direct shipment and transshipment on each other. I attempt to investigate direct shipment and transshipment separately as they were presenting heterogeneity over the past decade. The separate analysis shows that they are affected by same external factors to different extents. I have also constructed several models to predict transshipment throughput. This study contributes to the literature on port research, abbreviates the gap on understanding transshipment and assists the policy makers and managers in generating strategic development plans of port management.