Evaluating space weather effects of communication blackouts, GNSS-based navigation and surveillance failure, and cosmic radiation on air traffic management

Abstract

The booming civil aviation is challenging the limited airspace resources, generating safety and efficiency problems in Air Traffic Management (ATM). In response, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) proposed the Communication, Navigation, and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM), which employs digital technologies, including the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and various automation to support a seamless global air traffic management system. However, space weather, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejection, can hinder routine aviation operations from communication blackouts and GNSS-based navigation and surveillance failure. In addition, the elevated cosmic radiation induced by space weather can also cause hazardous aviation radiation exposure, which poses a threat to the health of aircrew and passengers. Hence, these effects of space weather necessitate flight plan adjustments. Although space weather events have been heavily emphasized, few studies on the implications of space weather on aviation operations have been conducted. Consequently, this thesis aims to quantify these effects from the standpoint of air traffic management by utilizing some historical space weather events and indispensable assumptions. Space weather can cause HF communication blackouts, disrupting transpolar flight operations. Therefore, airlines may choose to cancel flights or reroute to low-latitude airspace to maintain satellite communications. To evaluate the economic impact of the HF communication blackouts, we developed a scenario based on the assumption that a space weather event as intense as the Halloween solar storm of 2003 would have occurred in 2019. The results indicate that the potential daily economic losses associated with polar aircraft rerouting and cancellations might vary from €0.21 million to €2.20 million. Additionally, space weather can impact GNSS performance, resulting in GNSS satellite navigation failure. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure and the associated economic costs, we chose the Halloween storm of 2003 as a starting point. Results indicate that 2,705 flights in the Continental United States (CONUS) would be affected during the course of space weather events. Failures in the Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) and Area Navigation (RNAV) can result in an increase of up to €2.43 million in expenses. Besides, we investigate the effects of an ionosphere storm on Hong Kong flights in 2030 by simulating a period of satellite navigation failure (9-16 LT) on a geomagnetic storm day. Our modeling results indicate that if the duration of satellite navigation cannot be forecast, the costs associated with arrival flights will reach €2 million. If the ionospheric impact can be accurately forecasted, the cost could be decreased to €1 million. In addition, the time costs related to passengers due to flight delays might reach €3 million. GNSS serves as the basis for Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). Consequently, ADS-B will be ineffective during GNSS positioning failure. To investigate the effects of ADS-B failure, we simulated the failure duration from 9 LT to 16 LT on 5 September 2018. The total increased flight time for arrival flights in Hong Kong is 1,864 minutes and increased fuel consumption is 65.24 tons, resulting in an additional €0.33 million economic cost including time cost and fuel cost. Massive cosmic radiation can significantly affect the health of flight crew and passengers. Consequently, during a solar radiation storm, aviation radiation exposure will increase dramatically. In this case, airlines can choose to cancel flights, reroute flights, or lower flight altitudes. To analyze the economic costs of flight cancellations due to the elevated cosmic radiation, we assumed that a space weather event as intense as the Halloween solar storm of 2003 would have occurred in 2019. Results show that flight cancellation costs can be from €2.77 million to €48.97 million, depending on the cosmic radiation dose limits for a given flight plan. In addition, a multi-objective optimization model has been proposed to minimize aviation radiation exposure and fuel consumption by assigning flight altitudes and speeds while maintaining normal aircraft performance. The study is based on a Tokyo-to-London international flight in 2018 under the assumption that a space weather event comparable to the solar radiation storm that occurred on 20 January 2005. Results show that the proposed method can efficiently reduce fuel consumption while adhering to cosmic radiation restriction regulations. Our research provides insight for future decisions on air transportation in hazardous space weather conditions. Our study indicates that powerful space weather events may briefly disrupt normal aviation operations and cause substantial economic losses if future aviation equipment and technology are fragile to its effects.