Decision model for developing concentrated rural settlement in post-disaster reconstruction : a study in China

Abstract

It has been estimated that between 1900 and 2011 the total deaths worldwide from natural disaster was 32 million, the total number made homeless was 167 million and the total cost of the damage was nearly 2.36 trillion US dollars. Natural disasters cause greater devastation in rural areas than those to urban areas. The approach to reconstructing rural settlement after a natural disaster influences how quickly normal life can be restored and to what extent the reconstruction will be sustainable. Common approaches for rural settlement reconstruction include resettlement and reconstruction in-situ, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. In line with these developments, there is an increasingly strong appeal for sustainable development based post-disaster reconstruction. Concentrated rural settlement (CRS) is considered an effective means to achieve sustainable post-disaster construction by providing sufficient infrastructure and public services, more employment opportunities, and improved environmental quality. However, there has been little research into the development of CRS within a particular village after a natural disaster. Meanwhile, the existing decision system of CRS development under normal means (without disasters) and rural housing reconstruction could not be directly applied in developing CRS in post-disaster reconstruction in China due to inherent problems. Therefore, there is a need to know how to develop CRS in post-disaster reconstruction in China. The study aims to discover how to develop CRS in post-disaster reconstruction in China. In line with this overall aim, four specific objectives were undertaken with references to CRS development after the 5.12 Sichuan Earthquake in 2008 in China, which include investigating the opportunity to develop CRS, identifying the critical determinant factors (CDFs) for implementing CRS, establishing a decision model for implementing CRS in post-disaster reconstruction, and validating the developed model. This study has both theoretical and practical significances. In theory, it provides developing CRS within a village as an optional way of rural settlement reconstruction besides reconstruction in-situ and resettlement, which is considered to be more sustainable and resilient. In practice, it helps understand why developing CRS is different under normal conditions and that under disaster conditions in China. Also, it contributes to the understanding of critical determinant factors for implementing CRS in post-disaster reconstruction when making decisions in China. Moreover, it provides Chinese village-level government with knowledge for delivering CRS in post-disaster reconstruction through the established decision model. Although this study focused on post-quake reconstruction in China, the identified CDFs and decision model provides a useful reference for reconstruction after other types of natural disasters and in other regions of the world.