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Title: A comparison study of Zika virus outbreaks in French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia in Brazil
Authors: He, DH 
Gao, DZ
Lou, Y 
Zhao, S 
Ruan, SG
Issue Date: 17-Mar-2017
Source: Scientific reports, 2017, v. 7, 273, p. 1-6
Abstract: Zika virus (ZIKV) disease outbreaks occurred in French Polynesia in 2013-2014 and in Brazil and Colombia in 2015-2016, respectively. Using our recently developed ZIKV disease model, we simulated the reported ZIKV infection cases from French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia of Brazil. Moreover, we estimated that the infection attack rates were 78.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5-86.3%) in French Polynesia which closely matches a previous serological study; 20.8% ( 95% CI: 1.1-50.0%) in Colombia which suggests that the attack rate was most likely less than 50%; and 32.4% (95% CI: 2.5-94.2%) in the State of Bahia in Brazil which suggests that the attack rate is unidentifiable with monthly data in Bahia. Furthermore, we found that the association of precipitation and ZIKV outbreak was more evident in Colombia than the other two places. These results are helpful for us to understand the possible evolution, to control the on-going outbreaks, to prevent the potential geographic spread, and to study the ecological and epidemiological characteristics of ZIKV.
Keywords: West-nile-virus
Drought-induced amplification
Transmission
Disease
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Journal: Scientific reports 
ISSN: 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-00253-1
Rights: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
© The Author(s) 2017
The following publication He, D., Gao, D., Lou, Y. et al. A comparison study of Zika virus outbreaks in French Polynesia, Colombia and the State of Bahia in Brazil. Sci Rep 7, 273 (2017) is available at https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00253-1
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