Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/9669
Title: Forecasting cargo growth and regional role of the port of Hong Kong
Authors: Seabrooke, W
Hui, ECM 
Lam, WHK 
Wong, GKC
Keywords: Hong Kong
Port cargo forecast
Regression analysis
Issue Date: 2003
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Cities, 2003, v. 20, no. 1, p. 51-64 How to cite?
Journal: Cities 
Abstract: The port of Hong Kong is a critical component of both the city's and the region's economy. However, forecasts of cargo growth and development of the port of Hong Kong have been scarce and the findings conflict, while systematic treatments on the subject are rare. This paper predicts cargo growth and the development of the port of Hong Kong by means of regression analysis. Factors affecting cargo throughput in Hong Kong are identified, qualitatively evaluated and then entered into a forecast model that generates a projection of cargo throughput. Based on the cargo throughput forecast, and an assessment of the Pearl River Delta (the hinterland of the port), the future role of the port is postulated. Further, the current cargo forecast is compared to the official forecast by the Port and Maritime Board, on which policy decisions are based.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/9669
ISSN: 0264-2751
EISSN: 1873-6084
DOI: 10.1016/S0264-2751(02)00097-5
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