Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/8808
Title: Small world and scale free model of transmission of SARS
Authors: Small, M
Tse, CK 
Keywords: Scale free network
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)
Small world network
Super-spreader event
Transmission dynamics
Issue Date: 2005
Publisher: World Scientific
Source: International journal of bifurcation and chaos in applied sciences and engineering, 2005, v. 15, no. 5, p. 1745-1755 How to cite?
Journal: International journal of bifurcation and chaos in applied sciences and engineering 
Abstract: We model transmission of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in Hong Kong with a complex small world network. Each node in the network is connected to its immediate neighbors and a random number of geographically isolated nodes. Transmission can only occur along these links. We find that this model exhibits dynamics very similar to those observed during the SARS outbreak in 2003. We derive an analytic expression for the rate of infection and confirm this expression with computational simulations. An immediate consequence of this quantity is that the severity of the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong in 2003 was due to ineffectual infection control in hospitals (i.e. nosocomial transmission). If all infectious individuals were isolated as rapidly as they were identified the severity of the outbreak would have been minimal.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/8808
ISSN: 0218-1274
EISSN: 1793-6551
DOI: 10.1142/S0218127405012776
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