Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/8537
Title: Combination forecasts of International tourism demand
Authors: Shen, S
Li, G
Song, H 
Keywords: Demand forecasting
Encompassing tests
Forecast combination
Forecasting horizon
Issue Date: 2011
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Annals of tourism research, 2011, v. 38, no. 1, p. 72-89 How to cite?
Journal: Annals of tourism research 
Abstract: This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in the context of international tourism demand. Five econometric and two time-series models are employed to generate individual forecasts. Six combination methods are then employed, and their forecasting performance evaluated, using data on UK outbound tourism demand in seven destination countries. The results suggest that combination forecasts, in general, outperform the best individual forecasts. More sophisticated such combination methods, which take the historical performance of individual forecasts into account, perform better than the simple average technique. The performance of combination forecasts is associated with the performance consistency of the individual forecasts they include, and the inclusion of up to three individual forecasts is most likely to result in accurate combination forecasts.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/8537
ISSN: 0160-7383
EISSN: 1873-7722
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2010.05.003
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