Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/8294
Title: Recovery of tourism demand in Hong Kong from the global financial and economic crisis
Other Titles: 从全球金融经济危机中复苏 :访港旅游需求预测
Authors: Chon, K 
Li, G
Lin, S
Gao, Z
Keywords: Forecasting
Global financial and economic crisis
Hong Kong
Recovery
Tourism demand
Issue Date: 2010
Publisher: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
Source: Journal of China tourism research (中國旅游硏究), 2010, v. 6, no. 3, p. 259-278 How to cite?
Journal: Journal of China tourism research (中國旅游硏究) 
Abstract: This study aims to predict the recovery of the Hong Kong tourism industry from the current global financial and economic crisis. Based on the latest statistics available, this study provides updated forecasts of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from 10 key source markets over the period 2010-2015. The forecasts include annual and quarterly forecasts of tourist arrivals and the market shares of the source markets concerned. An econometric method is used to estimate the demand elasticities as well as their confidence intervals, followed by the interval demand predictions. The total tourist arrivals to Hong Kong are projected to reach 53.8 million by 2015 with the interval forecasts between 38.4 and 74.4 million, representing an annual growth of 10.48% on average against 2009, with an interval ranging from 4.44 to 16.60%. As far as individual source markets are concerned, their demand recovery takes varying paces. Overall, tourism demand in Hong Kong is relatively resilient to the global financial and economic crisis.
本文旨在预测香港旅游业将何时从当前的全球金融和经济危机中复苏。本文根据最新的统计数字,预测2010年至2015年间香港10个主要客源市场的访港旅客人次,包括年度和季度旅客人次预测和客源市场所占的市场份额预测。本文运用计量经济学的方法估计需求弹性及置信区间,再给出区间需求预测值。本文所得出的预测结果显示,到2015年访港总游客人次将达到5,380万,区间预测在3,840万至7,440万之间;与2009年的4.44%至16.60%相比,平均年增长达10.48%。十个客源市场的访港旅游需求的复苏步伐不尽相同。总的来说,香港的入境旅游需求比较能抵御全球金融经济危机的冲击。
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/8294
ISSN: 1938-8160
EISSN: 1938-8179
DOI: 10.1080/19388160.2010.503916
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