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Title: Forecast of urban EV charging load and smart control concerning uncertainties
Authors: Wang, XL 
Nie, YQ 
Cheng, KWE 
Mei, J 
Keywords: Electric vehicle
User behavior
Markov chain
Smart charging
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Source: International Symposium on Electrical Engineering (ISEE), Hong Kong, People's Republic of China, Dec 14, 2016 How to cite?
Abstract: Popularizing electric vehicles (EV) can be one of the most effective ways to deal with the ever severe air pollution. However, the accumulated charging power from the increasing integration of EVs could add large pressure to the peak of power grid. In this paper, a novel EV load forecasting model is formulated based on Markov chain, allowing for the stochasticity of user behavior, traffic and weather. The impact of EV integration is assessed in a typical medium voltage (MV) system while the resulting peak load and power loss are mitigated with charging control schemes. The proposed model could help to forecast the future charging demands with probabilistic uncertainties. The smart control schemes shall instruct the aggregator to make optimal charging plan concerning security and efficiency issues.
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