中国省级人口增长率及其空间关联分析

Abstract

分析了１９８２－１９９０年和１９９０－１９９８年２个时期的人日增长率，并用空间绞计分析方法研究了２个时期人口增长率的空间关联关系。１９８２～１９９０年中国可分为北部人口低增长、中西部高人口增长率、中东部低人口增长率和南部高人口增长率等 ４个区域，１９９０－１９９８年中国可分为北部低人曰增长率和南部高人口增长率２个区域，２个时期的空间聚类虽然不完全相同，但它们有共同的特点，南部和西部的人口增长率都比较高，北部地区的人口增长率都比较低。最后对实证研究的结果进行了分析。 Spatial autocorrelation is concerned with the degree to which objects or activities are similar to other objects or activities located nearby. In contrast to other types of spatial statistical analysis, such as point pattern analysis for example, spatial autocorrelation deals simultaneously with both locational and attribute information. Spatial association statistics measure the concentration of an attribute over space. While they are constructed in a very similar way to spatial autocorrelation measures, they offer the twin advantages of being able to differentiate spatial patterns caused by clusters of low values as opposed to clusters of high values, and they can be disaggregated by polygon or point to provide much more detailed information. Both spatial autocorrelation and spatial association statistics examine the relationship of an attribute value in one polygon or for one point with the values for proximal polygons or points. The spatial data of this paper are polygons. This paper aims to examine the relationship of an attribute value in one polygon with the values for proximal polygons. So spatial autocorrelation and spatial association statistics are fitted to analyze the spatial association of population growth rate by providence in China. Population growth rate indicates population growth degree in a period. This paper analyzes population growth rate in the periods of 1982-1990 and 1990-1998 in China. The spatial association of population growth rates in the two periods is studied with spatial statistics methods as well. In 1982-1990, China is divided into four regions: lower population growth rate in northern sub-region, higher population growth rate in central and western sub-region, lower population growth rate in central and eastern sub-region and higher population growth rate in southern sub-region. In 1990-1998, China is divided into two regions: lower population growth rate in northern sub-region and higher population growth rate in southern sub-region. Although the spatial clusters of the two periods are different, there are the same features with them. The population growth rate in the southern and eastern parts of China is higher, the population growth rate in the northern part of China is lower. The reasons are analyzed in detail.