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Title: Modelling, analysis and projections : a case study on nursing workforce demand in a local nursing home
Authors: Leung, PL
Wu, CH
Ip, WH 
Mou, WL
Issue Date: 2015
Source: The World Conference on Business and Management & Global Great Debate (WCBM 2015), the People and Global Business Association, Seoul, Korea, 29 June - 2 July 2015
Abstract: The percentage of the elderly population in almost every country is growing at a much faster rate than any other age groups due to declining fertility rates and longer life expectancy. The demand for healthcare services is increasing dramatically, and the global market for elderly healthcare services is also expanding. The ageing population is becoming a major concern in Hong Kong. The ageing trend together with the increasing demand for elderly healthcare services creates opportunities for the growth of private healthcare services providers; however, threatens the public healthcare system. Given the continuous, huge demand of nursing needs, frontline staff of the healthcare system have heavy workloads and are under heavy pressure, which result in high nursing staff turnover and continual manpower shortage. Furthermore, the newly employed nurses are insufficient to fill the existing vacancies, and cannot meet the projected increasing healthcare needs associated with the ageing population. With the governmental policy of promoting ‘ageing in place as the core, institutional care as back-up’, the number of local nursing homes as well as local subsidised and non-subsidised residential care places for the elderly is increasing substantially. The growth in the demand of nursing home places, compounded by the increasing complexities of illnesses and varieties of procedures, poses a heavy workload to nursing staff of nursing home. As a result, nursing homes are experiencing manpower shortage and overloading of the nursing staff. Although the ageing trend has drawn academic, commercial and political interests for better resources allocation in nursing home, only a few studies have been conducted on personnel planning in nursing homes. Among these studies, researchers seldom formulated the nursing workforce planning problem or established a model for practical usage. Furthermore, there is a lack of a feasible and flexible approach for nursing workforce demand projections in nursing homes. In response to the problems that nursing home managers are currently facing during workforce demand projections and the potentially expanding market, this paper focuses on increasing services capacity of local nursing homes by proposing a nursing workforce demand projection modelling. Emerging and smart technologies, including Internet of Things (IoT) and Radio Frequency Identification (RFID), are utilized for data acquisition and instant data transmission for model building and analysis. In this paper, related literature was reviewed, a nursing workforce demand projection modeling was presented, issues of concern were considered, and the problem was formulated as an optimization problem. This paper illustrates how to solve the simplified model by Excel Solver in order to show the feasibility, the proposed model will be solved by other algorithms, such as enhanced optimization techniques and heuristics, in the near future.
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