Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/39230
Title: Forecasting visitor arrivals from the US to China : a comparison of model performance
Authors: Song, H 
Li, G
Wu, C
Issue Date: 2013
Source: The Council for Australasian University Tourism and Hospitality Education (CAUTHE) Conference 2013, New Zealand, 11-14 Feb, 2013, p. 475-478 How to cite?
Abstract: This study aims to evaluate the performance of various time-series and econometric models' long-term forecasts of US visitor arrivals to China. The autoregressive lag distributed model, time varying parameter model, vector autoregressive model, exponential smoothing model, autoregressive integrated moving average model and the na ve model are included in the comparison. A wide range of forecasting horizons, from one year ahead to seven years ahead, are considered in this exercise. In addition, the performance of forecast combinations is further examined over all horizons under consideration. The empirical results indicate the overall best-performing model for forecasting the demand for China tourism by US residents. The ability of forecast combination in improving forecasting accuracy is assessed too.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/39230
ISBN: 9780864762832
0864762836
Appears in Collections:Conference Paper

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