Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/34013
Title: Plausible models for propagation of the SARS virus
Authors: Small, M
Shi, P
Tse, CK 
Keywords: Epidemic models
SARS
Small-world networks
Surrogates
Issue Date: 2004
Source: IEICE Transactions on fundamentals of electronics, communications and computer sciences, 2004, v. E87-A, no. 9, p. 2379-2386 How to cite?
Journal: IEICE Transactions on Fundamentals of Electronics, Communications and Computer Sciences 
Abstract: Using daily infection data for Hong Kong we explore the validity of a variety of models of disease propagation when applied to the SARS epidemic. Surrogate data methods show that simple random models are insufficient and that the standard epidemic susceptible-infectedremoved model does not fully account for the underlying variability in the observed data. As an alternative, we consider a more complex small world network model and show that such a structure can be applied to reliably produce simulations quantitative similar to the true data. The small world network model not only captures the apparently random fluctuation in the reported data, but can also reproduce mini-outbreaks such as those caused by so-called "super-spreaders" and in the Hong Kong housing estate of Amoy Gardens.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/34013
ISSN: 0916-8508
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