Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/32483
Title: A system dynamics model for the sustainable land use planning and development
Authors: Shen, Q 
Chen, Q
Tang, BS
Yeung, S
Hu, Y
Cheung, G
Keywords: Model
Policy
Sustainable land use
System dynamics
Issue Date: 2009
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Source: Habitat international, 2009, v. 33, no. 1, p. 15-25 How to cite?
Journal: Habitat international 
Abstract: This paper applies a system dynamics model for the sustainable land use and urban development in Hong Kong. The model is used to test the outcomes of development policy scenarios and make forecasts. It consists of five sub-systems including population, economy, housing, transport and urban/developed land, respectively. Two distinctively different development schemes concerning urban population density are simulated by the model and the findings are undertaken to verify the model through comparison with historical data and sensitivity check. The forecast timeframe is then expanded from 40 years to 300 years, providing a simulation period long enough to observe and study the "limits to growth" phenomenon and the impacts on development potential of Hong Kong. The modelling results are directly useful to compare different dynamic consequences brought by various policies and decisions, and are thus of great significance to achieving the goal of sustainable land use.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/32483
ISSN: 0197-3975
EISSN: 1873-5428
DOI: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2008.02.004
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