Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10397/27850
Title: A business process activity model and performance measurement using a time series ARIMA intervention analysis
Authors: Lam, CY
Ip, WH 
Lau, CW
Issue Date: 2009
Source: Expert systems with applications, 2009, v. 36, no. 3 part 2, p. 6986-6994
Abstract: The degree of performance excellence that an enterprise can achieve greatly depends on the business process flow that the enterprise adopts, where the more efficient and effective the business process flow, the greater the degree of performance excellence the enterprise can achieve. Most conventional business process analyses focus on qualitative methodologies, but these lack solid measurement for supporting the business process improvement. Therefore, a quantitative methodology using an activity model that is described in this paper is proposed. This model involves the use of an adjacent matrix to empirically identify inefficient and ineffective activity looping, after which the business process flow can then be improved. With the proposed quantitative methodology, a time series intervention ARIMA model is used to measure the intervention effects and the asymptotic change in the simulation results of the business process reengineering that is based on the activity model analysis. The approach is illustrated by a case study of a purchasing process of a household appliance manufacturing enterprise that involves 20 purchasing activities. The results indicate that the changes can be explicitly quantified and the effects of BPR can be measured.
Keywords: Activity model
ARIMA
Business process reengineering (BPR)
Intervention analysis
Performance analysis
Reachable matrix
Simulation
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Journal: Expert systems with applications 
ISSN: 0957-4174
EISSN: 1873-6793
DOI: 10.1016/j.eswa.2008.08.027
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