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Title: New technology and the modeling of risk-taking behavior in congested road networks
Authors: Yin, Y
Lam, WHK 
Ieda, H
Issue Date: 2004
Source: Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies, 2004, v. 12, no. 3-4 SPEC.ISS., p. 171-192
Abstract: Intelligent transport systems provide various means to improve traffic congestion in road networks. Evaluation of the benefits of these improvements requires consideration of commuters' response to reliability and/or uncertainty of travel time under various circumstances. Various disruptions cause recurrent or non-recurrent congestion on road networks, which make road travel times intrinsically fluctuating and unpredictable. Confronted with such uncertain traffic conditions, commuters are known to develop some simple decision-making process to adjust their travel choices. This paper represents the decision-making process involved in departure-time and route choices as risk-taking behavior under uncertainty. An expected travel disutility function associated with commuters' departure-time and route choices is formulated with taking into account the travel delay (due the recurrent congestion), the uncertainty of travel times (due to incident-induced congestion) and the consequent early or late arrival penalty. Commuters are assumed to make decision on the departure-time and route choices on the basis of the minimal expected travel disutility. Thus the network will achieve a simultaneous route and departure-time user equilibrium, in which no commuter can decrease his or her expected disutility by unilaterally changing the route or departure-time. The equilibrium is further formulated as an equivalent nonlinear complementarity problem and is then converted into an unconstrained minimization problem with the use of a gap function suggested recently. Two algorithms based on the Nelder-Mead multidimensional simplex method and the heuristic route/time-swapping approach, are adapted to solve the problem. Finally, numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the proposed model and algorithms.
Keywords: Departure-time and route choice
Expected travel disutility
Risk-taking behavior
Travel time reliability or uncertainty
Publisher: Pergamon Press
Journal: Transportation research. Part C, Emerging technologies 
ISSN: 0968-090X
DOI: 10.1016/j.trc.2004.07.009
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